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A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.

That represents the warning from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The team have studied the political, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What concerns everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.

Absence of Serious Debate

Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few politicians or advocates want to engage with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Both composes two articles that seek neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Arguments encompass national emblems, levies, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.

"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.

Likelihood of Public Vote

McBride considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has has something to acquire from the other's positions."

Appeal for More Extensive Debate

Westminster must participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."